Historical Bond Performance Points To Lower Future Returns


The 35 year bull market in bonds from 9/81 through 7/16 saw yields on the 10-year US treasury fall from 15.32% to 1.50%. The average annual return during this period was 9.07%. It looks as if interest rates have bottomed and we are now starting a possible bear market phase. The last bear market phase for bonds lasted from 4/54 through 9/81 where yields went from 2.29% to 15.32%. The average annual return during this bear market phase was 2.69%. It is extremely likely that annual returns for the 10-year US treasury will be closer to the bear market return of 2.69% than the bull market return of 9.07% for the foreseeable future.

 

Disclosure:

The information presented here is the opinion of the author and may quickly become outdated and is subject to change without notice. All material presented in this article are compiled from sources believed to be reliable, however accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No person should make an investment decision in reliance on the information presented here.

The information presented here is distributed for education purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any particular trading strategy.

Performance data showing past performance results is no guarantee of future returns.

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