Historical Bond Performance Points To Lower Future Returns
The 35 year bull market in bonds from 9/81 through 7/16 saw yields on the 10-year US treasury fall from 15.32% to 1.50%. The average annual return during this period was 9.07%. It looks as if interest rates have bottomed and we are now starting a possible bear market phase. The last bear market phase for bonds lasted from 4/54 through 9/81 where yields went from 2.29% to 15.32%. The average annual return during this bear market phase was 2.69%. It is extremely likely tha