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There have been three bear markets in the S&P 500 total return since 1970 where the maximum loss has exceeded 40%. In September of 1974, the loss was -42.64%. In September of 2002 the loss was -44.73% and in February of 2009, the loss was -50.95%. Are there any common characteristics of these tops prior to these bear markets which would have allowed us to avoid suffering the subsequent terrible losses. Below is a plot of the normalized performance four years prior to the ma

What happens to the overall value of your retirement account if you make a mistake or take a false step by getting out after a bad year. For this analysis lets assume that you had invested in the S&P 500 and after a horrendously painful year, with a return worse than -20% for the calendar year, you couldn't take it anymore and decided to get out of the market for one year. How would this impact your overall portfolio value. There have been three time since 12/31/71 where the

What if you set a goal that by the time you retired you wanted an investment account worth the value of all of your wages added together. How much would you need to set aside and what kind of return would you need. Assume you start contributing to your investment account starting at age 25 and hope to retire at the full retirement age of 67. This analysis will use real wages and real returns (subtracting inflation). With 42 years of work you will need an investment account e

Investing in emerging markets may offer higher returns along with higher volatility. Adding emerging markets (MSCI EM) as a seventh asset into the Tactical Multi-Asset may improve returns at the expense of higher volatility (or risk). The Tactical Multi-Asset Portfolio consists of ETFs that track six assets. These assets are domestic stocks (S&P 500 Total Return), international stocks (MSCI EAFE), commodities (S&P GSCI), real estate (FTSE NAREIT), precious metals (Gold) and