Momentum is Real
The best estimate of an asset's near term future return is its recent past return. An alternative way of saying this is that bull and bear markets are real. Additionally, there is also clear empirical evidence of this in looking at the annual returns for different rebalance periods. These returns are shown here from an equally weighted portfolio constructed of bonds, domestic stocks, international stocks, commodities, real estate and gold from 12/31/71 through 8/31/16. No