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Probability Of Lasting In Retirement

How long will the strategically allocated portfolio last in retirement? The investment account starts with 10 times the pre-retirement income and a certain percentage is withdrawn from the account at the start of each year.

Here is a table showing the probability of the strategically allocated portfolio lasting a given number of years against the percentage of pre-retirement income withdrawn from the portfolio.

From the above analysis it is apparent how important getting a percentage of your income from social security really is. If social security provides 40% of the projected 70% of pre-retirement income, or 28% of the pre-retirement income, the account will not run out of money. If there are cuts to social security or if it disappears entirely it will be difficult for the strategically allocated portfolio to provide entirely for retirement.

To meet a goal of having a 90% chance of not running out of money after 30 years we will need to lower the portfolio withdrawal rate to 59.9% of pre-retirement income. Alternatively, we would either need to withold more than 10% of our income every year for retirement or move to a higher return/higher volatility placement on the efficient frontier.



The information presented here is the opinion of the author and may quickly become outdated and is subject to change without notice. All material presented in this article are compiled from sources believed to be reliable, however accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No person should make an investment decision in reliance on the information presented here.

The ProFolio model portfolio results presented here are based on simulated or hypothetical performance. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and there is no market risk involved in the results. The simulated trades use historical data and therefore the trading algorithms are designed with the benefit of hindsight. In a simulated performance record it may be difficult, if not impossible, to account for all factors which might affect an actual performance record. Additionally, any account that ProFolio manages will invest during periods with different economic conditions than those under which the trading programs were developed. There is no representation being made that any account will perform as the hypothetical results indicate. In fact, there are often sharp differences between hypothetical results and actual returns subsequently achieved. Due to the benefit of hindsight, hypothetical performance almost invariably will show attractive returns, while actual results going forward may not be as attractive. ​

The algorithm that created the trading signals for each of the portfolios used Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) historical data where possible. This ETF data had a limited history. To gain additional data history, the actual asset or index data was pre-pended to the ETF data. When this occurred, ETF expenses were subtracted from the asset or index data. Where asset or index data was not available, other correlated data, adjusted for expenses, was used. Model portfolio results include interest and dividends, but subtract ProFolio's management fee (0.5%) and third-party brokerage custody/trading fee (0.25%). Real return is inflation adjusted. Higher returns generally come with higher risks. Model portfolio risk characteristics include maximum drawdown and volatility. Maximum drawdown is the portfolio's peak to trough prior to hitting a new peak and is a measure of downside risk. Volatility, or standard deviation, is a measure of the portfolio's price fluctuations both positive and negative. Sharpe ratio is a measure of return for a given risk. Sharpe ratio = (portfolio return - risk free return)/SQRT(portfolio return variance - risk free return variance). Where the risk free asset is the 90-day T-bill and the variance is the square of the standard deviation (or volatility). Tactical portfolios utilize cash or cash equivalents for risk management.

The information presented here is distributed for education purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any particular trading strategy.

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