The ProFolio model portfolio results presented here are based on simulated or hypothetical performance. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading and there is no market risk involved in the results. The simulated trades use historical data and therefore the trading algorithms are designed with the benefit of hindsight. In a simulated performance record it may be difficult, if not impossible, to account for all factors which might affect an actual performance record. Future investment will occur during periods with different economic conditions than those under which the trading programs were developed. There is no representation being made that any future returns will perform as the hypothetical results indicate. In fact, there are often sharp differences between past hypothetical results and future actual returns subsequently achieved. Due to the benefit of hindsight, hypothetical performance almost invariably will show attractive returns, while actual results going forward may not be as attractive. As with all market investments, investments can appreciate or depreciate.
The algorithm that created the trading signals for each of the portfolios used Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) historical data where possible. This ETF data had a limited history. To gain additional data history, the actual asset or index data was pre-pended to the ETF data. When this occurred, ETF expenses were subtracted from the asset or index data. Where asset or index data was not available, other correlated data, adjusted for expenses, was used. Model portfolio results include interest and dividends, but a management fee (0.5%) and third-party brokerage custody/trading fee (0.25%). Real returns are inflation adjusted. Higher returns generally come with higher risks. Model portfolio risk characteristics include maximum drawdown and volatility. Maximum drawdown is the portfolio's peak to trough prior to hitting a new peak and is a measure of downside risk. Volatility, or standard deviation, is a measure of the portfolio's price fluctuations both positive and negative. Sharpe ratio is a measure of return for a given risk. Sharpe ratio = (portfolio return - risk free return)/SQRT(portfolio return variance - risk free return variance). The risk free asset is the 90-day T-Bill and variance is the square of the standard deviation (or volatility). Tactical portfolios utilize cash or cash equivalents for risk management.
The information presented here is distributed for education purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or participate in any particular trading strategy.
Security markets are volatile and model portfolio results may quickly become outdated and are subject to change without notice. While model portfolios use data compiled from sources believed to be reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No person should make an investment decision in reliance on the information presented here. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and expenses carefully before investing.
Third Party Disclosure:
ProFolio Capital Management does not endorse or warrant the accuracy of any third party data presented on this site or any third party websites linked to by this site. ProFolio Capital Management is separate and unaffiliated from any third parties listed and is not responsible for their products, services, policies or the content of their website. Third party data and websites should be used and relied on at your own risk.
ProFolio model portfolios consist of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) selected to track their underlying asset class. The main selection criteria are low expense, liquidity and correlation to the asset they track. Fund expenses, lack of liquidity and failure to track the asset class will all negatively affect portfolio performance. The ETFs chosen are periodically evaluated for their suitability and are subject to change without prior notice.